臺灣颱風定量降水預報(中文版)

Course rating: 5 stars.
(Rated by 5 users)
Course categories:熱帶氣旋 Tropical Cyclone
Course start date:2016/11/29
Hours:1.00 - 1.25 h
Origin:UCAR/COMET

Description

(本課程的測驗及認證由COMET/MetEd提供)

本課程介紹了臺灣中央氣象局進行颱風定量降水預報的方法,包含了類比法及臺灣颱風降水氣候模式所扮演的角色。本課程亦討論了系集颱風定量降水預報(Ensemble Typhoon QPF, ETQPF)模式之優點及其限制,並加入情境演練,以幫助使用者學習如何詮釋ETQPF模式的結果,並彙整預報資訊給緊急應變中心。
此課程亦強調使用不確定性預報而非決定性預報的重要,以考量颱風預報的不確定性。

Objectives

完成此課程,您將能達成下列學習目標:
  • 瞭解臺灣的颱風預報流程,以及目前作業上常見的颱風QPF指引。
    • 解釋不同的颱風QPF指引之信心度指數如何隨預報時間而變化。
  • 說明氣候模式如何產製颱風QPF資料,並說明其優缺點。
  • 說明系集颱風定量降水預報(Ensemble Typhoon QPF,簡稱ETQPF)模式如何產製QPF資料,並說明其優缺點。
  • 瞭解為何評估及傳遞颱風可能帶來的災害風險時,使用不確定性預報較決定性預報為佳。
    • 在颱風路徑有顯著不確定性時,如何使用ETQPF模式進行降水風險評估。

Keywords

颱風降水、降水分布、定量降水預報、類比法、ETQPF、系集颱風定量降水預報、氣候模式、傳遞預報不確定性。

Prerequisite Knowledge

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References

Hong, J.-S., C.-T. Fong, L.-F. Hsiao, Y.-C. Yu, and C.-Y. Tzeng, 2015: Ensemble typhoon quantitative precipitation forecasts model in Taiwan. Weather and Forecasting, 30(1), 217-237.

Lee, C.-S., L.-R. Huang, H.-S. Shen, and S.-T. Wang, 2006: A climatology model for forecasting typhoon rainfall in Taiwan. Nat. Hazards, 37, 87–105.

Wu, C.-C., and M.-J. Yang, 2011: Preface to the special issue on "Typhoon Morakot (2009): Observation, modeling, and forecasting.". Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci, 22.

Contributors

Project Contributors

Program Manager
  • Bruce Muller — UCAR/COMET
Project Lead
  • Tsvetomir Ross-Lazarov — UCAR/COMET
Principal Science Advisors
  • 呂國臣 (Dr. Kuo-Chen Lu), Deputy Director - Central Weather Bureau/Meteorological Forecast Center
  • 洪景山 (Dr. Jing-Shan Hong), Senior Technical Specialist - Central Weather Bureau/Meteorological Information Center
  • 馮欽賜 (Dr. Chin-Tzu Fong), Deputy Director - Central Weather Bureau/Meteorological Information Center
  • 黃椿喜 (Dr. Treng-shi Huang), Section Chief - Central Weather Bureau/Meteorological Forecast Center
  • 劉人瑋 (Jen-Wei Liu), Associate Technical Specialist, Central Weather Bureau/Meteorological Forecast Center
  • Vanessa Vincente, Meteorologist — UCAR/COMET
  • Bryan Guarente, Meteorologist — UCAR/COMET
Science Advisors
  • 蘇奕叡 (Yi-Jui Su), Research Assistant - Central Weather Bureau/Meteorological Information Center
  • 陳新淦 (Shin-Gan Chen), Associate Technical Specialist - Central Weather Bureau/Meteorological Forecast Center
  • 陳薏蘋 (Yi-Pin Chen), Junior Technical Specialist - Central Weather Bureau/Meteorological Forecast Center
  • 李志昕 (Chih-Hsin Li), Associate Technical Specialist - Central Weather Bureau/Meteorological Information Center
Instructional Design
  • Tsvetomir Ross-Lazarov — UCAR/COMET
Graphics/Animations
  • Steve Deyo — UCAR/COMET
Multimedia Authoring/Interface Design
  • Gary Pacheco — UCAR/COMET