臺灣颱風定量降水預報(English)

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Course categories:熱帶氣旋 Tropical Cyclone
Course start date:2016/11/23
Hours:1.00 - 1.25 h
Origin:UCAR/COMET

Description

(本課程亦有全中文版,請搜尋”臺灣颱風定量降水預報“。本課程的測驗及認證由COMET/MetEd提供)

This lesson (available in Chinese) introduces the typhoon QPF forecasting methodology used by the CWB, including the role played by the analogue method and the typhoon rainfall climatology model in Taiwan. The lesson discusses the advantages and limitations of the Ensemble Typhoon QPF model, and includes a case to help learners practice interpreting this guidance and summarizing it to Emergency Operation Centers.
The lesson also highlights the need to use probabilistic forecasts instead of deterministic forecasts in order to account for the uncertainties associated with typhoon forecasting.

Objectives

After completing this lesson, you will be able to:
  • Describe the forecast process and the QPF guidance used to make typhoon QPFs in Taiwan.
    • Explain why the confidence level of each QPF guidance changes along with the forecast hour.
  • Explain how the climatology model generates typhoon QPFs and describe its advantages and disadvantages.
    • Explain how the Ensemble Typhoon QPF (ETQPF) model creates precipitation forecasts and describe its advantages and disadvantages.
  • Explain the advantages of using forecast uncertainty information to estimate and convey the typhoon threat instead of a deterministic-only approach.
    • Use the ETQPF model to estimate the risk of heavy precipitation for locations in Taiwan based on the uncertainty of a typhoon’s track.

Keywords

typhoon rainfall, precipitation distribution, QPF, analogue method, ETQPF, Ensemble Typhoon QPF, climatological model, QPF probabilistic forecasts, communicate probabilistic precipitation forecasts

Prerequisite Knowledge

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References

Hong, J.-S., C.-T. Fong, L.-F. Hsiao, Y.-C. Yu, and C.-Y. Tzeng, 2015: Ensemble typhoon quantitative precipitation forecasts model in Taiwan. Weather and Forecasting, 30(1), 217-237.

Lee, C.-S., L.-R. Huang, H.-S. Shen, and S.-T. Wang, 2006: A climatology model for forecasting typhoon rainfall in Taiwan. Nat. Hazards, 37, 87–105.

Wu, C.-C., and M.-J. Yang, 2011: Preface to the special issue on "Typhoon Morakot (2009): Observation, modeling, and forecasting.". Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci, 22.

Contributors

Project Contributors

Program Manager
  • Bruce Muller — UCAR/COMET
Project Lead
  • Tsvetomir Ross-Lazarov — UCAR/COMET
Principal Science Advisors
  • 呂國臣 (Dr. Kuo-Chen Lu), Deputy Director - Central Weather Bureau/Meteorological Forecast Center
  • 洪景山 (Dr. Jing-Shan Hong), Senior Technical Specialist - Central Weather Bureau/Meteorological Information Center
  • 馮欽賜 (Dr. Chin-Tzu Fong), Deputy Director - Central Weather Bureau/Meteorological Information Center
  • 黃椿喜 (Dr. Treng-shi Huang), Section Chief - Central Weather Bureau/Meteorological Forecast Center
  • 劉人瑋 (Jen-Wei Liu), Associate Technical Specialist, Central Weather Bureau/Meteorological Forecast Center
  • Vanessa Vincente, Meteorologist — UCAR/COMET
  • Bryan Guarente, Meteorologist — UCAR/COMET
Science Advisors
  • 蘇奕叡 (Yi-Jui Su), Research Assistant - Central Weather Bureau/Meteorological Information Center
  • 陳新淦 (Shin-Gan Chen), Associate Technical Specialist - Central Weather Bureau/Meteorological Forecast Center
  • 陳薏蘋 (Yi-Pin Chen), Junior Technical Specialist - Central Weather Bureau/Meteorological Forecast Center
  • 李志昕 (Chih-Hsin Li), Associate Technical Specialist - Central Weather Bureau/Meteorological Information Center
Instructional Design
  • Tsvetomir Ross-Lazarov — UCAR/COMET
Graphics/Animations
  • Steve Deyo — UCAR/COMET
Multimedia Authoring/Interface Design
  • Gary Pacheco — UCAR/COMET